Two birds, many stones

Two kinds of numbers are mainly doing the rounds in the media these days, one being the stimulus packages offered to pep up the economy and the other pertaining to the number of US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. While both have potential impact on billions of people worldwide, we have a comforting knowledge from history that a scenario similar to the former has been resolved in the past by President Franklin D Roosevelt. Though the "New Deal" is something for which President Roosevelt will be eternally remembered, I find it worth mentioning that his effort towards defeating the axis powers during World War II is also a reason why his name is one of the most easily recognizable names among US Presidents.

While it was very easy for me to draw a parallel between the scenarios faced by the two Presidents, an assessment at ground level will evince that though both the Presidents encountered stormy seas, President Roosevelt had the wind behind him thus getting him ashore faster. Yes, the timing of World War II was such that it helped President Roosevelt kill two birds with one stone, joining the war further helped the economy of the United States when it was just emerging out of the depression. So, while he was making an effort to save millions from falling prey to the axis powers, the economy was limping back to normal and so significant was this change that we had the baby boomers arriving immediately after the end of the war.

For President Obama however the war effort is more complex, not only does he have to untangle the United States from the complex web in Iraq and Afghanistan, he needs to be careful about not repeating the same mistakes that Britain made after World War II. Statistics are piled up heavily against Britain when it comes to pulling out of a region after ensuring order. While it could be purely coincidental it is important to note that several countries where the British political influence ended in the late 1940 are right now in the news for internal strife and turmoil - the British Mandate in Palestine ended in 1948, Pakistan (and Bangladesh) got their independence in 1947 and so did Sri Lanka. While the Palestine-Israel conflict and the strife in Sri Lanka can be attributed to apathy, since Britain really did not take a stance towards the majority or minority and moved out leaving the states in flux, the issue in Pakistan originates from certain aggressive moves by Britain, such as the imposition of the two-nation theory. Sudan is another country that gained independence in mid fifties that is currently occupying the front page for its political instability. India seems to be the only country that has not slipped into a similar turmoil, thanks to the successful efforts of Lord Mountbatten and others like Nehru and Patel overseeing the transfer of power and consolidation of states.

A pullout from Iraq is on the horizon and during his recent visit to Australia Prime Minister Maliki seemed confident of a smooth transition, however Iraq is a lot different from Afghanistan.While the demographics and dynamics of the Middle East makes it rather infeasible for the situation to spill over into neighboring countries, we see the crisis in Afghanistan creating ripples in neighboring Pakistan, and if unchecked, it may be only a matter of time before the surge destabilizes the already volatile region. The demise of the Soviets from Afghanistan was hastened due to the support the US received from Pakistan. This key player is now a loose cannon and that makes the issue in Afghanistan more complex than Iraq. With Pakistan placating the Taliban at Swat United States has to further worry about the funding to Pakistan ending up as the bullets that are felling its soldiers. While the economy takes the higher priority now, Afghanistan will give the strategists at the White House a lot to think about in the days to come.

There is no doubt that restoring the economy and bringing the US troops back home is going to be a lot different that killing two birds with one stone. Both however are critical to lasting peace on earth.